Anecdotal Survey of the Tampa Market

Hi All,

We've been digging our heels in and watching the market very very closely. Yes the market has a lot of inventory, yes prices have flattened somewhat, but here's what we believe.

For residential investors the market appears to be at or near the bottom with the exception of the condo market which may last a little longer. Builders have pulled way back and are projected to remain in a holding pattern for awhile until the existing inventory and committed ventures are sold. Expect more of the same while inventory continues to work its way down.

Single family's appear a little brighter. The inventory is being worked off in most of this market and it appears to us that by the end of the year things may again be on the upswing - provided the economy holds, and there are no catastrophic events.

Other good news is that the national unemployment rate is now at a 4.5% low. This was unexpected. In fact it is expected to rise a little by the end of the year.

In addition the state of Florida has done a great job in reducing insurance rates through their new insurance coverage programs, and we expect those insurers that were fleeing just months ago will want back in because the state may become their biggest competitor at bargain prices. Then, it's only a small political step to add other "property and casualty" lines of insurance. Pretty soon poof - the profitable good gravy business, which all insurance vendors want may begin to disappear too. Our guess is that they're going to have to step back in even if they lose some money in order to protect their market share? Who cares? Investors and homeowners do. Right now a lot of people still think there's a crisis, but it appears to us that the great state of Florida has done a yeoman's job of handling this tough issue.

While most of the real estate brokers are projecting flat to slight declines in the market, with some undertones of stress and distress to boost sales. We believe a lot of that is "fluff." The greater Tampa market continues to be blessed with varied employment and age demographics that can only continue to bode well for its current and future economy.

We agree that this is a buyers market and we're encouraging you to take a serious look. We don't flip real estate generally, and we like to hold for long term capital gains generally. That's why we didn't get caught in the speculative "crunch" like many investors in this market.

We would encourage you to give a second look at this market over the next 6 to 8 months. Then we think that if the economy continues to be a strong as it is, that the prices will begin to rise again in the mid to upper single digit ranges.

We're beginning to scour certain areas where we think there is some hidden equities based on the present and our anticipation of what will be happening in the next one to two years.

We're looking for capital partners. If you're interested we'd love to explain our no nonsense, no hype approach to investing for the long term.

ChrisAmigo
chris@allamigos.com